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United states' AAA credit rating in danger of downgrade by Fitch

Fitch Ratings— says that the United States' AAA credit rating might be hurt if the nation chances a default in the impending months. As per Reuters, Fitch claims that the U.S's plan shortage and obligation must be further decreased to secure against negative appraisals. This is regardless of the Department of Treasury's proclamation in October that the setback was at its most reduced since 2008 with the elected shortage consuming just 4.1 percent of the country’s GDP — down from 2012?s 6.8%.


Macroeconomic analysis for Oct 31st 2013

analysis_forex_oct31_2013Germany

Germany reported a drop regarding 0. 2% in consumer rates in October. No change ended up being expected. Year over year, prices rose by only one. 3% instead of 1. 4% predicted. EUR/USD has also been under time limits through the week, and will likely remain on the spine foot before charge decision on Nov seventh. However, that remains on substantive ground. Adding the higher exchange rate from the euro presently, will the ECB minimize rates or announce a fresh LTRO program? Your numbers aren't solely below expectations, but in addition getting further far from the 2% target from the actual European Middle Bank.


Daily market analysis for Oct 30th 2013

USD: The dollar held a three-day gain resistant to the yen amid speculation Federal Reserve policy makers won’t announce any major alterations to monetary stimulus if they conclude a conference today. The Bloomberg Dollar Index always been higher after the biggest rally within almost eight weeks with all the Fed due to wrap up its two-day gathering along with the Bank of Japan set to decide on policy tomorrow. The euro was supported before data forecast showing Spain’s economy expanded for once in more than couple of years. An index involving currency volatility rose on the lowest level because December. The Raised on will pare the $85 billion within monthly bond obtaining at its Walk meeting, according to a Bloomberg News study of analysts on Oct. 17-18. The purchases, made to help push down long-term yields and spur growth, tend to debase this greenback. Policy makers very last month refrained via slowing stimulus to help await further evidence of economic recovery, particularly within the labor market. Companies extra 150, 000 workers to help payrolls this month from 166, 000 acquire in September, according to the median estimate involving economists polled by Bloomberg prior to a ADP Research Institute’s document today. Japan’s middle bank will launch updated forecasts on growth and inflation after it meets the next day. Economists predict no change to the BOJ’s purchases of greater than 7 trillion yen ($71 billion) a month of government provides, which are aimed towards ending deflation.


EURO at highest level in 2 years, where to next?

EUR-2year-high

Recently the US dollar fell to a two-year low against the Euro, hitting 1.3830 on growing expectations that the US Federal Reserve will continue bond purchases next year and that there will be no tapering in 2013. Tapering is the keyword being mentioned lately, tapering refers to the FED stopping aggressive bond purchases therefore removing liquidity from the financial markets.

Recent European data has been weak with European growth slowing and unemployment and PMI coming in much weaker than expected. With such weak data hitting the wires we wonder if it is justified to be a EURO buyer at 1.38, we think NOT.


Fundamental analysis of the British pound

GBPpoundTrading the British pound has lately involved the need for a very skilled understanding of the stiff Bank of England and its new governor, Mark Carney. 


Carney had been expected to increase the size of the BOE's assets, by buying bonds, and therefore increasing money supply.  GBPUSD bears were looking forward to GBP weakness once Carney took office, as such bond buying would weaken the currency.  This theory brought GBPUSD down to nearly 1.4800 in early July 2013. However since then the cable has been ticking up, and is currently sitting at about 1.6000


US government shutdown enters 3rd day

Government_shutdownDay three of the US government shut down.


Politicians are still refusing to come to an agreement with president Obama and the government operations remain in limbo. Obama’s meeting with Congressional Leadership yesterday made it clear that he was not going to negotiate in order to reopen the government or raise the borrowing capacity of the United States, reiterating his view that the House should pass a clean government funding bill and not hold the economy hostage.

How is this whole fiasco affecting financial markets?!

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